Mutuel field favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The mutuel field, undefeated Algorithms and Union Rags are listed as the three favorites for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager for the 2012 Run for the Roses.

The pool is comprised of 23 individual three-year-olds plus the mutuel field. Wagering for the Future Pool begins Friday at noon (et) and concludes Sunday at 6 p.m. (et).

As has been the custom the mutuel field is the early favorite at 8-5. The mutuel field includes all three-year-olds not listed in the pool.

Holy Bull Stakes winner Algorithms is the top individual three-year-old at 8-1. The colt upset 2011 champion two-year-old Hansen in the Holy Bull last month.

Union Rags is at 10-1. The colt was undefeated heading into last November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He finished second, a head behind Hansen. Union Rags is expected to make his 2012 debut at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26.

Hansen is 12-1 in the opening odds.

"The mutuel field has been a solid favorite in every opening pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and, given the loss by two-year-old champion Hansen in his first start as a three-year-old, there is every reason to think the 'all others' bet will be a strong-to-heavy favorite in what appears to be a wide-open crop of Kentucky Derby candidates," said track handicapper Mike Battaglia. "The 'now' horse is Algorithms, who is unbeaten, comes from the Pletcher barn, has a strong pedigree and easily handled the reigning two-year- old champ in the Holy Bull. The speed figures assigned to that win were impressive, so you can expect a lot of bettors to move in his direction. But every pool has interesting Derby prospects at attractive odds, and we should remember that last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, did not even appear as an individual wagering interest until Pool 3. So much can happen on the road to the Kentucky Derby."

Here is the complete list of the 24 betting interests for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Number Wagering Interest Morning line odds Final odds:

1. Algorithms 8-1

2. Alpha 20-1

3. Battle Hardened 30-1

4. Creative Cause 20-1

5. Discreet Dancer 15-1

6. Dullahan 15-1

7. El Padrino 20-1

8. Empire Way 50-1

9. Ever So Lucky 20-1

10. Fed Biz 20-1

11. Gemologist 20-1

12. Hansen 12-1

13. I'll Have Another 20-1

14. Junebugred 50-1

15. Liaison 20-1

16. Longview Drive 50-1

17. Midnight Transfer 50-1

18. Mr. Bowling 50-1

19. Out of Bounds 20-1

20. Rousing Sermon 30-1

21. Sabercat 30-1

22. Take Charge Indy 30-1

23. Union Rags 10-1

24. All Other 3YOs (field) 8-5

The remaining two Future Wagers will be held March 2-4 and March 30-April 1.

The 138th Kentucky Derby will be conducted on Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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